Social Media Indicators of what to expect in the Autumn Statement 2016

The Autumn Statement is on Wednesday 23 November 2016.  Some clues as to what the Chancellor is thinking can be gleaned from recent Social Media pronouncements. 

Will it be the last? The Chancellor, Philip Hammond, recently questioned the need for one. But we know there will be one this year, and post-Brexit decision, post US elections, and post new Prime Minister, it will surely be more like a Budget.

Some clues as to what the Chancellor is thinking can be gleaned from recent Social Media pronouncements.

September 4: “Also meeting world finance leaders at G20. Fundamental strengths of British economy means we prepare for Brexit from position of strength”.

 “At the G20 in China where we are making it clearer than ever that the UK will continue to be a global leader in free trade.”

 “In Bratislava for mtg with EU finance ministers. We continue to work constructively with our EU partners as we forge a new role for the UK.”

EU partners? Not for long. The Chancellor recognises that things have to change.

September 7: “Hosting financial services leaders at HM Treasury to discuss impact of Brexit & how to ensure continued investment to create jobs & wage growth.”

 So, we have investment in Heathrow and Hinckley Point confirmed; will we see more large infrastructure projects announced or consulted on to further boost jobs and wages post-Brexit? We suspect so.

September 7: “Leading up to Autumn Statement I’ll meet business reps spanning every aspect of the economy. Next meeting is with major importers/exporters.

 September 20: “This afternoon I met with @fsb.policy members to discuss investment in infrastructure & skills – crucial for UK’s growth & productivity.

 There’s much more on similar themes, and then, of course, we have the Governor of the Bank of England. The Chancellor said: “Very pleased that Mark Carney will stay as Governor to 2019 – extending his highly effective leadership of the Bank.

 So, continued low inflation, low interest rates (they may even go negative), and focus on increasing employment opportunities.

What does all this actually mean for businesses though? We don’t expect anything too radical. In a sense, the Chancellor has an open cheque book, as he has abandoned the plans for a balanced budget by the end of this Parliament (whether that be next year or in 2020).

Watch out for:

• Commitment to single rate of corporation tax of 17% (but not 15% as Mr Osborne had trailed)
• Simplification of tax and accounting for small businesses
• Taxing some small businesses directly on the owners (rather like partnerships)
• A trail to align tax and National Insurance if the Conservatives are elected again
• A more flexible approach to VAT, including new rates in the future (post Brexit)
• Tackling avoidance (this may as well be written in blood as it is a recurring theme)
• Long-term commitment to a highest rate of income tax of 40%

And in our view, the tax code is already far too long. Let’s get back to one annual Budget and Finance Act, and as much of the UK’s legislation will be re-written over a period of time post-Brexit, let’s have a fundamental re-write of the ridiculously complicated, contradictory, expensive, time-consuming, and frankly un-understandable taxes acts.